COVID-19 Update: Latest Washington DOH Data; UW Projections

The Washington Department of Health (DOH) has provided its latest COVID-19 data, as of April 5, 2020. This report also includes University of Washington COVID-19 data and projections showing that peak hospital resources happened four days ago on April 2, and a projection of 632 deaths by Aug 4 (was predicted to be 1,400 deaths 10 days ago.) Also, Washington is now sending 400 ventilators to other states, such as New York.

As of April 5, 2020

• 338 deaths
• 7,984 confirmed cases               

County specific totals can be found here.

Total deaths were not reported in the updated data for March 30 and 31, though the current totals are correct.

Beginning March 28, 2020, DOH gave notice that its daily updates were for data from the previous day at 11:59 pm. Therefore, the data point for a certain day on the above charts represents confirmed cases through the day before at 11:59 pm. 

Mortality rates by age as of April 2:

Age                     Mortality Rate

<19:                                0%

20-39:                           .16%

40-59:                           .72%

60-79:                             6%

80+:                              20.4%

Overall:                        4.1%

The total number of deaths and cases and the mortality rates are not officially reported by age group by DOH, only the percentage was. We did our own math to formulate these totals using the percentages by age group with the total reported cases and deaths. Also, note that these figures do not take into account individuals who may have the virus but do not get tested for the virus.

Tests:

Negative: 80,327

Positive: 7,591

Total: 87,918

Negative tests were not reported March 24 and 25. Tests were not reported for March 30 and 31.  

IHME and University of Washington Predictive Model:

Predicted peak deaths per day is predicted to be 19 on April 6. This prediction has drastically moved up from last week’s prediction of a peak of 28 deaths per day on April 24.

Red Line: Actual deaths per day.

Dashed Line: Predicted deaths per day.

Shaded Area: Where the experts predict, with 95% confidence, the actual deaths per day trend will end up.

Hospital Admissions

According to the Seattle Times and DOH, hospitalizations for patients with COVID-like symptoms dropped this last week in Washington.